2018年以来，猝不及防的美国对中兴芯片禁运事件，让中国制造陷入一片恐慌式哗然。虽然可以清晰的看到美国对于中国的科技力提升感到一种危机感，但我们也很快意识到各个领域中的卡脖子技术正在制约着中国实力的真正发展。而所谓的卡脖子技术体现在中国机器人行业的核心零部件领域，就非被日本垄断的精密减速机莫属了。
Regarding the precision reducer of the card neck technology, the robot lecture hall specially invited the professor of Beijing University of Technology, the Yangtze River Scholar of the Ministry of Education, the member of the International Gear Standards Committee (ISO/TC60), and the well-known expert of the reducer industry, Mr. Shi Zhaoyao made a wonderful presentation for the audience in the lecture hall. Analysis speech.In his opinion, China's precision reducer is on a mountain col. It is impossible to retreat, and it is difficult to move forward.In order to facilitate everyone's learning, the robot lecture hall organizes the content of Professor Shi's speech "Robot Precision Reducer on the Col" as follows (to reduce the length, part of the speech by Professor Shi is presented in PPT format):
Today, I started a more colloquial topic "Robot Precision Reducer on the Col", because I think the current situation of precision reducers in our country can be accurately described on the Col. The joint reducer with a market share of 40 billion accounts for only a small part of the more than 2000 billion gear industry and should not have received excessive attention.But now the robotics industry is growing rapidly. From the government to the private sector, from investment to enterprises, all are paying attention to reducers. I have summarized three reasons:
Based on these three reasons, China's robot reducer industry is located on the mountain col. It is impossible to retreat, and even if it moves forward, it is difficult and dangerous.We look at this topic from a global perspective, and the robot precision reducer is also on the col.
今天我讲三个问题，首先做一个远眺与近观，看看山坳上的减速器；再讲讲我们所面临的问题与对策；最后讨论一下这个行业的创新与发展。
我们先从齿轮行业的大背景下来看精密减速器。齿轮行业在零部件里是最大的行业，有自身的发展规律和技术进展节拍。先给大家普及一下齿轮行业的概念，齿轮就分两种，我们书上讲很多，齿轮就是两种，工业齿轮和车辆齿轮，齿轮行业的特点可以总结为以下这些：
机械零部件有很多种，如轴承、紧固件、模具等等，但齿轮行业的产值是最大的，2017年达2360亿，轴承只有1800多亿。过去30年，中国齿轮行业经历了3个增长周期，总体上30年来齿轮行业都增长很快，但是2014、2015、2016徘徊了三年。齿轮 行业还有一个特点，在中国制造走向世界过程中，齿轮行业体现的是逆差，这点我后面再讲。
90年代，伴随摩托车的大发展，齿轮行业出现了第一次大增长，从20多亿增长到近200亿，这是以机械装备为主的时代。2001年以后汽车齿轮的发展使我国齿轮行业产值从几百亿跃升到了1000多亿，这是第二次大增长，从此齿轮行业进入数控装备时代。齿轮发展的第三个周期是十多年前，我国重工业起飞带动的风电、工程机械等齿轮箱的快速发展，行业产值突破2000多亿。这期间我国齿轮技术也得到了全面提升。
The gear industry has experienced 30 years of development and three growth cycles.I have made an evaluation of China's gear industry in the past 30 years:
Now, after three years of wandering, due to the national transformation and upgrading policy and technological breakthroughs in the gear industry, the gear industry has ushered in the fourth growth cycle.So now is a good opportunity for the venture capital gear industry, because the whole big cycle has already begun.
第四次增长的增长点主要在3个领域：第一是汽车自动变速器；第二是精密减速机；第三是轨道交通用齿轮箱。目前齿轮行业在这三个点上风口比较多。
Automobile automatic transmission was once a pain in my country's gear industry.my country has an annual output of nearly 2900 million cars. Automatic transmissions were almost entirely dependent on imports and foreign-funded enterprises. The gear industry's deficit of more than 100 billion is mainly derived from the import of automatic transmissions.
In the past two years, my country has ushered in a major breakthrough in automatic transmissions, with all breakthroughs in AT, DCT, and CVT, and full bloom.The development of domestic automatic transmissions has brought about two results: the domestic automatic transmission market is undergoing a drastic reshuffle; in addition, the market demand for manual transmissions has declined, and the life of manual transmission companies has become increasingly difficult.
增长点之二就是精密减速器，涉及面很宽。数控机床曾经连齿轮都没有更别说减速器了，现在高档数控机床都带有精密减速器，因为添加减速器能提高整个机床的动态性能。此外自动化生产线对减速器的需求也很大。这个市场国内发展很快，空白点也很多，现在成规模进口；再一个是机器人的关节减速器；还有智能器具和IT设备对精密减速器的需求，也是风投最热的一块。比如全屏手机的镜头，就是由微小减速器驱动弹出的，各种密码锁也对减速器有巨量需求；值得特别关注的是：“控制+电机+减速器”集成为“机电动力模块”将是未来增长最快的。
The third growth point is rail transit.At present, the high-speed rail gearboxes on the Harmony and Fuxing have been made in China. The high-speed rail gearboxes require a relatively high lifespan of 30 years, and the wind power requirement is 20 years. A high-speed rail can run 80 kilometers a year, and 30 years is 2400 kilometers. .
So what are the characteristics of the fourth growth?The first three times were basically the introduction, digestion, and innovation. Now the reducer technology can only be developed by ourselves.The fourth growth is characterized by its own technology and comprehensiveness.Many people here are engaged in research. This is a good opportunity. Experts in the reducer industry have very high incomes. There are still many opportunities in this field.Comprehensiveness is embodied in many aspects such as technology, equipment, talents, and management, rather than relying on a single element.
The fourth growth has brought new opportunities for everyone. Our country will also grow from a big gear power to a strong gear power, and will form a new industrial cluster.For enterprises, it is an opportunity to reshuffle, and many leading enterprises will stand out.
第四次增长周期也存在很多挑战。
总之第四次增长，是中国齿轮行业的一次全面的、有质有量的提升；产值将突破3000亿，机器人精密减速器领域的产值将达到150亿；最终将实现我国从齿轮制造大国成为齿轮制造强国的转变。
Next, how do we look at the robot precision reducer from the background of gears?The following is Professor Shi Zhaoyao's summary of his personal views:
问题和对策
Next, I will talk about problems and countermeasures, mainly talking about some common problems.The ebb and flow of a group of companies withdrew, which is normal. Recently, the investment in robot precision reducers has been declining. Is it a return to rationality?We have passed the stage of chanting slogans. Now many companies are really working, and it is the gold that is left behind by the big waves.
过去一些年，我们解决了许多问题，回顾就会发现，我们精密减速器行业的进步还是很明显的，但目前远远不能满足我国机器人产业的需求！精密减速器现在存在一些共性问题，需要全行业共同面对。我曾去日本参观过一家著名的精密减速器企业，重点考察了精加工车间和装备车间。我发现，日本的工艺技术、专用装备、工量夹具等，是几十年不断积累下来的。这需要时间，这不是一天两天能解决的问题；我们在专用设备和配套辅具等各个方面的差距还很大，需要不断积累才能赶上。还有一个最大问题是后续投入！很多企业前期投了几千万乃至几个亿，后续看不到效益的时候就停下来的，所以后续投入是很多企业面临的问题。2014年全国有50多家做机器人相关减速器的，现在可能也就10多家了，20%在坚持，30%观望，50%退出去了。还在坚持的企业，能坚持下去吗？从事机器人精密减速器是有窗口期的，留给中国精密减速器窗口期大概是3~5年吧。很多企业如果是没有国家项目的支持，仅仅靠自己的一年一两千万的投入，不要说买装备，窗口期不会太长。
Now the robot precision reducer industry is under double pressure.It feels like the Japanese are doing a "game" for us. Knowing that Chinese products are coming out soon, they start to cut prices. The cost of your production is higher than his selling price, so you can't sell it, and it makes you feel uncomfortable.The second is to restrict the entry of related special equipment into China and force you to buy more expensive Swiss and German equipment in China, which is to increase your input costs, make your costs unable to come down, and delay the launch of your products.
如果想要打破现在的局面：
We are a big country, and we must take the road of autonomy.Our road to autonomy should be in several aspects, one of which is to have independent intellectual property rights, and the reducer must have independent intellectual property rights.The second is the autonomy of equipment.
我讲一点技术的，我们所有的减速器跟现在的市场不匹配，大家都知道原因在哪里，性能的问题、精度、寿命、系列化不强、成本不可控等等，无论是RV还是别的减速器，跟日本有明显的差异。第一在设计方面，我们现在的设计体系没有完成，系列化优化设计体系待完善。日本有一套成体系的设计分析软件，积累了很多数据库，能完成全生命周期的仿真分析。第二是批量化制造与检测技术需提升。第三个精度保持寿命提升问题。再一个就是应用，工程应用数据反馈与优化缺失，毕竟国产减速器在机器人领域的应用历史不长，这是一个闭环系统，只有用户使用中发现了问题才能促进我们减速器的持续改进。
Innovation and development
Think about this question. Why didn't we start to work hard on robotic precision reducers at the same time as Japan in the 30s 1980 years ago?To put it bluntly, we still have no demand for this industry. 10 years ago, China's labor force was not so expensive and we were not forward-looking.In fact, the entire industry is making up lessons. Lessons from 20 or 30 years ago are making up lessons. The industries we study, venture capital, etc., are all making up lessons.
这段话是我写的：10年以后、100年以后，1000年以后RV还是不是最理想的关节减速器，RV减速器以后，是不是机器人最终的形态？就像筷子一样，筷子一千多年前就有了，还是两根棍子。我感觉到减速器现在这种形态肯定是要改变的，它本身存在着一些问题，那么复杂，要求那么高，带来了方方面面的问题，说不定哪天一个前瞻的出现把这些东西都改变了。
Does an industrial robot have to have a reducer?We have been arguing about this issue for a long time in China. Why on earth must it be used?The conclusion now is that the industrial robot reducer is actually irreplaceable at this stage.So now many people are discussing this issue.
I think there are a lot of explorations in this area at present. On the whole, I think all the current efforts are not disruptive.
最后我谈一点建议
世界的机器人精密减速器正在山坳上，是创新问题。中国的机器人精密减速器正在山坳上，是追赶与创新问题。我们辛辛苦苦爬到这里，是退不回去了。困难是真实存在，是齿轮行业发展规律决定，我们不要妄想一步跨越必经阶段，不管怎么样人家到过的高度中国人一定能到，让我们在座的各位一起努力，让我们的机器人减速器尽早达到最高的巅峰。（以上内容转载自互联网，仅作知识传播，不做任何商业用途）
